Good morning. QQQs +55bps hitting more fresh ATHs. as bull market vibes begin to creep in. In macro land, rates are getting some relief (yields down 3-6 bps across the curve) as France’s Marine Le Pen’s aggressive fiscal consolidation plan drives a rally in European sovereigns, while Bessent said the US can “very quickly” bend the debt curve. In the Middle East, Oil -2% as exports normalize, Yemen’s Saudi-backed government reportedly recaptured key territory from the Houthis near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and Saudi confirmed its East-West pipeline is flowing at 5.8mbd.
In Tech, both semis and software +1%. HDDs -2-3% on news Toshiba/Seagate competing over TDK; SHOP +3% on a positive JPM note; Cyber rallying on reports of hacks in Korea.
Asia mixed overnight: TPX +0.92%, NKY +1.05%, Hang Seng +1%, HSCEI +0.96%, Taiwan TAIEX +0.22%, Korea KOSPI -0.89%
MRVL AND ZS Investor Day today
Let’s get to it…
STX / WDC / TDK: Seagate and Toshiba vie for key HDD head supplier – Bloomberg
Bloomberg reports Seagate and Toshiba are competing for TDK’s HDD magnetic-head business in a deal potentially worth several billion dollars, with Seagate submitting a higher offer after Toshiba began talks. TDK is the only independent head supplier; Toshiba relies on it entirely, including for its HAMR roadmap, while Seagate and WDC use it to supplement in-house output. Toshiba disputed the report and denied a reported meeting.
STX/WDC: Evercore says HDD bottleneck shifts upstream, making vertical integration the key advantage in HDD Deepdive
Evercore argues higher areal density shifts the HDD bottleneck from final assembly to heads, HAMR photonics, media/glass and test, favoring vertically integrated STX/WDC over Toshiba’s merchant-supplier model. It expects 2027–28 shortages to be driven by components rather than drive assembly, while 32TB 10-disk HAMR drives carry ~$190–195 of BOM and 40TB drives should improve cost/TB by ~20%.
AMD: Su plans substantial supply increase in 2027 – Reuters
Reuters reports Lisa Su said AMD plans to substantially increase chip supply in 2027 after raising output this year, citing very high demand over the next several years. During her Taiwan visit, Su said AMD is working with partners to expand both CPU and GPU production and secure memory supply. She said the industry needs more advanced wafer capacity and AMD is now planning three to five years ahead.
AMD: Citi raises PT to $800 as agentic AI expands CPU TAM to ~$300B by 2030
Citi says always-on agents like Muse could drive orders-of-magnitude more compute than chatbots, expanding CPU TAM from ~$29B in 2025 to ~$300B by 2030 (~60% CAGR), with AMD the primary beneficiary and Intel secondary. Citi estimates 100M Muse DAUs could also require ~200–390K B200-class GPUs / 2.8–5.5K NVL72 racks, worth ~$7–19B to NVDA, while rising CPU density creates incremental DRAM/SSD and networking demand; reiterates NVDA Buy/$315.
SHOP: JPM sees agentic commerce driving share gains, outlines bull case to ~30% ’27 revenue growth
JPM says SHOP is well positioned across all three layers of agentic commerce, with Shop Pay preserving payment economics while AI traffic converts better and drives larger merchant sales. Its bull case gets to ~30% ’27 growth via core business, Europe/international, enterprise and offline expansion, with pricing adding ~$90M of annualized subscription revenue; JPM raises 2H26/’27 estimates ~1–3% and sees ~20% FCF margins sustained. Reiterates OW, raises PT to $200 from $185 and keeps SHOP on the Analyst Focus List.
We wrote a little about SHOP in our EOD Wrap yesterday in case you missed it