TMTB EOD Wrap

Good afternoon. QQQs -66bps disproving Newton’s 4th law of motion which says stocks should always go up. What happened today? Some investor pushback against the NVDA/ORCL deal, energy catching a bid which usually causes some unwindy action vs. Tech (Oil / XLE +2%), many names are very extended, and as MS put it: “There is inherent portfolio vulnerability within the HF crowded longs to beta as well.” Still, it’s only one day and <1% so after a massive 3 week run let’s not go overboard with the narratives yet — we pointed out the ingredients in our weekly for the upcoming 2 week period that would make it an ideal window for pullback/digestion.

Post-close MU +1.5% numbers look very solid (especially the GM guide) and HBM commentary should be good enough and help alleviate some fears around ‘26 (although pushback is they didn’t say 2026 “fully” sold out”:

Micron’s HBM4 12H (12-high) remains on track to support customer platform ramps even as the performance requirements for HBM4 bandwidth and pin speeds have increased. We have recently shipped customer samples of our HBM4 with industry-leading bandwidth exceeding 2.8 TBps and pin speeds over 11Gbps…we expect to conclude agreements to sell out the remainder of our total HBM calendar 2026 supply in the coming months

F4Q Results:

• Total Revenue: $11,315mm (vs. Street $11,154mm, Guidance $11,100–$11,300mm).

• Gross Margins:45.7% (vs. Street 44.3%, Guidance 44.5% ±0.5%).

• Non-GAAP EPS: $3.03 (vs. Street $2.84, Guidance $2.78–$2.92).

F1Q Guidance:

• Total Revenue: $12,200–$12,800mm (vs. Street $11,906mm and bogeys closer to $12.5B)

• Gross Margins: 50.5%–52.5% (vs. Street 45.7% and bogeys closer to 47-48%)

• Non-GAAP EPS: 3.60–$3.90 (vs. Street $3.05 and bogeys closer to $3.50+).

FY26 Capex: Inline with bogeys at $18B

Let’s get to it…

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