QQQs +20bps as investors excitement over the CIT IEEPA ruling faded as investors came to grips that it might even add to some tariff uncertainty - an appeals court temporarily reinstated the tariffs while it considers the case . Yields fell 5bps across the curve as fed expects shifted in a slightly dovish direction.
Two charts I have my eye on as tea leaves for animal spirits/risk on: BTC and PLTR, which both now have failed breakouts - both were hanging in but now seem to be on the move down:
BTC:
PLTR:
I’ve been calling these two out repeatedly over the last week as they both led risk on off the bottom in April and now are potentially topping…so I am watching both closely as a tea leaf to reduce risk.
Let’s get to the recap…
INTERNET
UBER -4.5% on an earlier than expected Robotaxi launch on June 12th…Called this one well over the last couple months…Our view from May 20th the day stock peaked:
This has been a nice long since a couple months ago where we talked up “change in perception” to AV winner but we’re not involved any longer as this 180 in perception happened in a lot shorter time than expected and the launch in Atlanta seems like the last catalyst on the horizon for now. We still lean positive here and think long-term UBER has an important role to play in the future of autonomy given they are the largest rideshare platform — stock is by no means expensive (sub 20x FY’26 FCF) but we wait for a more interesting set up.
ETSY +3% after Yip said data continued to improve in 2H of May. When we wrote about this one on Tuesday, we kind of missed the obvious narrative: Temu/Shein lowering ad spend, likely helping them somewhat…Mgmt told ISi yesterday that search spend pullback has not had an effect on CPCs but have increased visibility of other players in the category within Google search results.
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