TMTB Weekly

Happy Sunday. A nice week to come back from vacation as QQQs and AI semis (and momentum) all regained their footing. Where do we see things after this week? In the same place we wrote about on Tuesday:

“Our base case is we put in the short-term bottom in AI semis/momentum [on Tuesday], but don’t think it’s all clear to go back to the narrative clean days of April/May for AI semis. We continue to think the environment where bulls could easily hand-wave all the bears away with “token demand growth continues unabated” and “open source is good for all picks and shovels” arguments isn’t here and likely won’t be for a bit.”

Sometimes the market vibe is clear ( the early “HOT AI SUMMER”) and it’s time to press the accelerator down, sometimes it’s not. We think it’s the latter right now. The big picture remains the same (yes, we’re still LT AI infra bulls), but it’s hard for us to come up with a coherent and broad near/medium-term narrative/direction around how AI semis are going to trade (m…