TMTB Weekly

Happy Sunday. To no one’s surprise, geopolitical headlines continued to dominate the market this week. On Iran, we don’t have anything new or novel to say that you probably haven’t already read elsewhere. Here’s what we wrote last week which continues to remain our focus:

We rather focus on just a couple of things than on the endless permutations possible. First, what we are more confident in is Trump’s nature: he doesn’t like to lose, he doesn’t like to blink immediately regardless of market (see Tariffs), he likes to negotiate and come away with some sort of “headline” deal, and he’s out for his own interests (low inflation/market higher heading into mid-terms). Given those, we think at some point, he will find an offramp — whether that’s in a few weeks or a couple months…Second, we have a close eye on Oil’s chart and potential topping patterns that appear, which we think likely will be the bigger tell (vs. the war noise we hear from media outlets/Trump’s tweets) for when the equit…