Hope everyone is enjoying the long weekend. We’ll dive into high level thoughts then get into the Tech landscape and NVDA thoughts.
Let’s get to it…
Bigger Picture - finally something new to talk about…
It’s been a while since we’ve had any interesting shifts in the price action of Tech stocks or macro to talk about it. The QQQs have been steadily grinding up since early Nov. with no big hiccups (some small indigestion the first couple days of the year notwithstanding). The story has been the same: the macro narrative has remained supportive, overall breadth has remained weak but large caps have supported price action, and AI excitement has steadily ramped up since the fall (it’s hard to imagine the chirping around NVDA demand sustainability was as recent as Nov/Dec).
On Monday, we noticed some tea leaves pointing to a change in character in how large cap stocks were reacting to morning news and wrote an evening note saying it was giving us some pause. Yes, it was only one day and partly…