Happy Sunday. Won’t focus too much on high-level here as I’m running out of time after entering several rabbit holes that yielded little results in preparation for writing this weekly.
Overall, we continue to stick with the same “choppy but upwards” trending view of the market and AI semis we’ve had since Leopold Lows. The AI Semi trade continues to become more bifurcated with investors being more selective, and we think that will continue. We are seeing examples of that on the upside with names like AMD (Muse beneficiary) and on-prem close to or hitting new highs and leading the way higher. The 3 large AI semi debates in focus remain outstanding: Frontier ARR trajectory, opensource vs. frontier, and ‘28 power supply gap. The next use-case past coding debate is seemingly being resolved by the release of consumer agentic products like Muse, although it’s still early.
Looking at software charts, we think we’ll continue to see a bit more digestion this week as we head into OpenAI Dev day…