Happy Monday. Finally, a week where I don’t need an antidepressant before talking about AI semis.
Let’s get right to the question everyone is talking about over the weekend: Is OpenAI’s Astra enough to get the AI semis vibes (and trade) going again?
We always think it’s better to take a step back and look at the full mosaic instead of just one datapoint, so let’s start elsewhere before coming back around to Astra.
First, we know from HF Prime data that nets have come down significantly. We don’t have Prime brokerage data, but we do have something arguably more scientific: a TMTB Slack poll.
econd, semi charts have begun looking significantly better. NVDA is a stone’s throw from new ATHs, while DELL has shown strong follow-through after its huge beat and raise and is now hitting new highs. Both are good tea leaves and mark a notable change in character from the Q2 earnings season, when semi stocks consistently struggled to follow through to the upside.
At the same time, we saw the opposi…