TMTB Weekly: APP, NVDA, MU, RBLX and MS TMT Conf Preview
We won’t spend too much time on the macro today as not much has changed since our post last week. A continued choppy market is our base case scenario. The 2H Feb seasonal weakness played out and now we are entering a better period for stocks:
Could we get another 3-5% down. Sure. Could the markets rally 1-3% this week. Sure. We remain focused on adding to key names at the right r/r levels as we struggle with getting too negative on the market. We saw some nice px action Thursday/Friday and saw some stocks refrain from making new lows while the QQQs went onto to make new lows by 2% on Thursday. Most of these stocks are high-quality market leaders, which is a good sign. We saw positive px divergence in AMZN, SHOP, CHWY, DASH, META, Z, RDDT, NFLX, CFLT, GTLB, PANW, APP, NOW, NET, TWLO, TEAM.
The key macro narrative remains growth scare fears given tariffs + DOGE and at what point the market shifts from bad is bad to bad is good on economic data (meaning: the econ data has gotten so bad the Fed can start easing again). On Friday, the declining Atlanta Fed GDP # helped catalyze a market rally near the end of the day and declining yields/data/inflation is helping brew the narrative that all these things are giving the Fed cover for a cut. Fed expectations have shifted from 30bps worth of cuts this year to 70bps worth of cuts. Are we completely there on the bad is good shift? We don’t think so, but the narrative is bubbling. The next Fed meeting is 3/18 and we likely get the typical tea leaves around what their thinking is beginning a week before that.
We think macro releases will continue to play an outsized role and this week we have 2 ISMs, SOTU speech, and NFP on Friday (most impt).
Side note: BTC is +7-8% this weekend…we’ll see if that’s a precursor for risk on tomorrow.
What’s on our mind in Tech after this week:
APP: We won’t go into much more detail on the short reports than we already did this week but liked this recap a reader sent us:
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