Happy Sunday. Another choppy week in Tech land:
The AI semis backdrop hasn’t really changed much since last week, where we laid out all the open debates plaguing the sector. The narrative still remains muddied. At this point, the only clean AI semi narrative is that there isn’t one. Gross and confidence remain low, exacerbated by a low volume late August environment. NVDA’s surprise guide was good, but it didn’t help resolve any of the outstanding 2028-and-beyond cycle questions tech investors are grappling with, namely whether falling inference costs trigger a Jevons-style explosion in demand or whether efficiency gains ultimately begin to outrun workload growth. Even positive datapoints like OpenRouter seeing token usage jump 13.8x after heavily discounting Terra and Luna are immediately debated both ways: Jevons bulls see proof that lower inference costs unlock massive demand, while bears question what subsidized token growth actually says about durable revenue or returns on the…