Happy Sunday. Another fun week in Tech land as QQQs finished +3%, with semis +5%, META +13%, and CPUs +13% leading the way higher.
We’ll skip the macro this week (yields at new highs, an October Fed hike, TACO hopes for the week, yadda yadda), other than to say we’re sticking with the choppy but upward-trending call we’ve had since the “Leopold Lows.” For semis, the big debates remain: the trajectory of frontier ARR, how quickly open source is catching up to frontier models across workloads, and the power supply gap in ’27/’28. Semi investors continue to be skeptical on the answers to all these questions, which has caused returns to decouple from earnings. Good chart from GS: