TMTB: SpaceX (SPCX) Roadshow Webinar Key Quotes
Speakers: Gwen Shotwell, President & COO, and Brett Johnson, CFO, SpaceX
#1 — AI Compute Revenue Already Materializing: $15B ARR Anthropic Deal
Johnson: “We decided to start demonstrating what that model will look like even before orbital on the terrestrial side. You saw the announcement a month ago with Anthropic — a deal that from an annual run rate perspective is $15 billion of additional revenue. We’re talking to a number of other customers right now for the same type of service. What we had talked about doing as far as hosting others in space — why are we waiting? Why don’t we move our model to the cutting-edge compute that we’re able to put up from both a training and inference perspective? As we move off other nodes of processors, we’re able to host others and monetize that compute.”
“We’re very different because we’re builders, because we’re vertically integrated infrastructure players — we’re able to have multiple paths to monetization of AI. It’s the infrastructure in terrestrial before even orbital compute, which has an unlock on the cost even from terrestrial. It’s also the fact that we’ve got over 100 million people already using our consumer Grok tool today. Multiple paths of monetization for this compute investment — really differentiating for us.”
Shotwell: “We were not looking to leverage our excess compute — that was not a revenue source we planned. We actually thought about it for AI in space and racks in space. We were approached by a number of companies, Anthropic being the most aggressive and the quickest to sign deals. People are coming to us. They saw that there might be some capacity of chips being brought online.”
#2 — $28 Trillion TAM: Most Ambitious in IPO History
Shotwell: “If you think about AI only at the highest levels, from an outside looking in perspective, that TAM does look quite high. However, desk jobs are about 40% of GDP. If you could enhance all those employees doing desk-type jobs with basically a digital human, which AI brings, think about the gains your company can make. Think about how that employee who has all this extra capacity and knowledge at their fingertips — think about how much more fun their job could be.”
“We’re not talking about $28 trillion being $28 trillion of the existing economy. Artificial intelligence is going to increase the pie manifold — that’s really where you get that TAM. And look at the play it has with connectivity. Humanoid robots, cars — all AI equipped. Every one of those machines is going to need connectivity to get back to mother brain. So I think our connectivity business is going to go bananas with AI, even outside of the AI segment.”
Johnson: “The first $5.7 trillion is not enterprise AI, and is in segments where we are either leading today already or have a right to win. Spacing and connectivity alone is $2 trillion a year when you add those together. We’ve already demonstrated with broadband — 12 million customers in 160 markets around the world, an industry-leading position with a network that’s never existed before.”
#3 — Starship: 99% Cost Reduction, 20x Starlink Multiplier, Full Reusability
Shotwell: “Starship is the ship that will take humans to the moon, to Mars. The first version, V3, will take 100 metric tons to orbit. After propellant refueling, 100 metric tons to the moon or Mars. With the V3 satellite combination, one launch of Starlink V3 satellites is about 20x the capability and capacity of a Falcon launch full of Starlink satellites.”
“It’s fully reusable — the first vehicle where both the first stage and the second stage are fully and rapidly reusable. Right now, Falcon’s first stage is reusable, but not rapidly — we’ve got it down to about a week. Imagine what travel would be like if you needed a week between aircraft flights. With full and rapid reusability, we’re finally at a place where regular people can participate in the space economy.”
Johnson: “In the next year or so, as we land that second stage and start to rapidly reuse it, that’s going to drive a 10x improvement in cost per kilogram to space from what we’re already doing with Falcon, which is industry leading by a lot. When you talk about 99% improvement from where the industry had been for decades, that’s transformative.”
#4 — Orbital AI Compute: Clean Energy, No Land/Water/Power Constraints