TMT Breakout

TMT Breakout

TMTB: Palantir (PLTR) & ON Semi First takes

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TMT Breakout
Nov 02, 2026
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PLTR +2%: A 13th straight acceleration and a 4Q guide above the bogeys. Revenue of $2.31B (+96%) beat Street ($2.18B) and was in line with the ~$2.30-2.34B bogeys, US Comm +148% ($984M) beat Street ($943M) but missed the ~$1.00-1.02B bogey, and the 4Q guide of $2.65B (+88%) beat both Street ($2.46B) and the ~$2.56-2.62B bogeys, with FY26 raised $378M (vs. $498M in 2Q) to $8.53B, the top of the bogey range. The FY US Comm floor of >$3.56B is the main nit short of the bogeys, and bookings slowed (US Comm TCV -31% q/q)

Co. continues to put up amazing #s…Bulls got the 13th straight acceleration they own it for plus a 4Q guide that implies a very very slight decel as we get near 100% growth. US Gov re-accelerating to 96%. Bears will lean on US Comm missing bogeys and not re-accelerating (148% vs. 149% in 2Q) and the slower bookings at ~75x C27.

  • Revenue beat Street and was in line with the bogeys at $2.313B, +96% y/y (+20% q/q), vs. Street $2.18B (+84.9%), the $2.160-2.164B guide and ~$2.30-2.34B bogeys (+95-98%).

    • That’s a 13th straight acceleration, to 95.9% from 92.8% in 2Q on a 62.8% comp (vs. 48.0% for 2Q); 2-yr stack 158.7 vs. 140.8 in 2Q.

    • That’s a 7.0% beat on the guide midpoint vs. 7.6% in 2Q; 12-quarter average 5.0%. Beat Street by 5.9% vs. 6.7% in 2Q.

    • First $2B+ quarter. US revenue $1.937B (+119% vs. +115% in 2Q, +23% q/q); International ~$376M (+26%, by subtraction) vs. ~+34% in 2Q by our math (Intl split in the deck).

  • US Comm beat Street but missed the bogeys at $984M, +148% (+29% q/q), vs. Street $943M (+137.5%) and ~$1.00-1.02B bogeys (+152-157%).

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