TMTB: NVDA CRM TTD SNOW First Takes

NVDA +3% looks very good with Q1 Guide $76.44 - $79.5B vs bogeys closer to $74B. GM guide of 75%. No China in revenues. Those are main KPIs to know. Now things hinge on Jensen, who usually does a good job on the call .

For Q4: NVDA reported Jan Q revenue/gross margin/EPS of $68b/75.2%/$1.62 vs. Street at $66.1b/75.0%/$1.53

Why isn’t stock up more? Your guess as good as mine but this looks objectively better than expected.

“Computing demand is growing exponentially — the agentic AI inflection point has arrived. Grace Blackwell with NVLink is the king of inference today — delivering an order-of-magnitude lower cost per token — and Vera Rubin will extend that leadership even further,” said Jensen Huang, founder and CEO of NVIDIA. “Enterprise adoption of agents is skyrocketing. Our customers are racing to invest in AI compute — the factories powering the AI industrial revolution and their future growth.”

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CRM: -5% Revenue was essentially in line at $11.20B vs. Street $11.19B, but the key KPI 4Q cRPO disappointed at +13% (including ~4pts from Informatica) vs. buyside expectations closer to ~14–15% — bulls definitely hoping for more. April guide modestly better than feared at $11.055B/$3.12 vs. Street $11.01B/$3.01, with April cRPO ~13% roughly in line and FY27 revenue growth guided to 10–11%, slightly ahead of buyside mixed quarter likely overshadows the guide.

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TTD -16%: Another bad look for what seems the “gift that keeps on giving” for shorts. Q4 ok with revenue $847M vs. $840.6M and adj. EBITDA $400M vs. $376.6Mbut Q1 guide much weaker with Q1 revenue guided to at least $678M vs. Street $688.6M and adj. EBITDA ~$195M vs. $223.0M, partially offset by a $350M incremental buyback authorization (total remaining $500M). Oof.

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SNOW -2%: The quarter looked clean, with F4Q product revenue $1.23B vs. Street $1.20B, and in line with buyside bogeys. Guide better: F1Q product revenue was guided to $1.2645B vs. Street $1.26B, and FY27 product revenue growth was guided to +27% vs. Street +24% (and buyside closer to 25%). SNOW just beat their initial FY26 product revenue by 5-6ppts, so would imply something around 32-33% for FY27 eventually, a decent accel. Why stock not up? I think it all comes down to the valuation discussion we have been having in sw.

Here’s how I set it up in my weekly Sunday, which I think is holding true…