TMTB Morning Wrap
Good morning. Futures +2.2% as US/Iran reach a formal agreement to re-open Srait of Hormuz, an MOU which sets backdrop for 60 days of negotiations. Good recap of the whole thing via X here. Oil is down 5% while the market is pricing in 17bps worth of rate hikes this year. Yields down 2-3bps across the curve.
Anthropic is headed to the White House this morning to try to soothe things over regarding Fable/Mythos export controls.
Asia generally up: TPX +3.03%, NKY +4.99%, Hang Seng +0.5%, HSCEI +0.02%, SHCOMP +1.61%, Taiwan TAIEX +2.78%, Korea KOSPI +5.2%. Samsung +5%; SK Hynix +7%; Softbank +10%; Kioxia +12%
In The U.S., semis leading the way higher with NBIS +8%; Memory/HDDS +7-8%; semicap +5% while software and internet are up but lagging.
Hope everyone had a good weekend. Let’s dive straight in:
Anthropic: US issued export controls on Fable/Myhots post Friday. “They screwed us”: Personality clashes sent Anthropic’s models offline
On Thursday, Amazon CEO Andy Jassy called Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressing concerns that Anthropic's most powerful models, Mythos and Fable, could be jailbroken.
The administration official said Anthropic knew a jailbreak could happen and chose to distribute it anyway: “They came to every fork in the road and took the wrong fork.”
Anthropic failed to “honor” a recent cyber executive order, administration officials claim, and the company’s purported failure to take the matter seriously led to its most powerful products being scrubbed from the internet.
“Everybody said Anthropic was a bad actor. Some of us said it was time to give them a chance. Now those people are questioning that. They screwed us,” an administration official said.
“It’s like they just speak in different languages,” the source said, adding that the company has simply not figured out how to communicate with this administration.
ROKU: Fox to Buy ROKU for $160/share
DDOG: Truist Upgrades to Buy, Says AI Adoption Is Outrunning AI Optimization Concerns
Truist upgraded DDOG to Buy and raised its PT to $300, arguing investor concerns around AI optimization are being overwhelmed by the urgency of enterprise AI adoption. Recent customer and partner conversations suggest Datadog remains in the early innings of AI-driven growth, with non-AI-native enterprises increasingly deploying agents that require more telemetry, monitoring, and observability. The firm also highlighted improving confidence in the durability of DDOG’s relationships with frontier AI labs, reducing a key overhang on the stock. While valuation has expanded, Truist believes Street still underestimates the durability of consumption growth and the size of the opportunity as AI adoption broadens across the enterprise.