Good morning. QQQs +1% to start the week on some optimism there could be some diplomatic success around the war (Trump apparently called off air strikes against the Houthis at the last minute Sunday night and said he would be open to meeting w Iran’s president at the GA). Oil -3%. Yields are down 4-5 bps across the curve. BTC +5%.
In Tech Semis +2.3% leading the way higher with Optical and CPUs higher, the latter on continued excitement around MUSE (META +2.3%) and consumer agentic harnesses (rumors OpenAI close to announcing something). CIEN +6% on an ISI upgrade. RBLX +4% on positive engagement over the weekend which JPM and M-sci are calling out. ACN +5% on announcement they are Anthropic’s safety partner. BTC related names strong as well now well above Clarity lows last week. GOOGL +10bps underperforming on some weaker 3p ad data.
Overnight, Asia was strong: Hang Seng +1.18%, HSCEI +1.39%, SHCOMP +0.97%, Shenzhen +1.04%, Taiwan TAIEX +1.14%, Korea KOSPI +1.65%. Samsung +5%. Hynix +11%
Busy week on the calendar: Optical conference ECOC begins in Spain (more technical rather than C-suite), Muse Connect begins on Wednesday. OKTA investor day and conference on Wednesday
Lots to get to this morning, so let’s get to it…
CIEN: Evercore upgrades to OP/$550, sees path to >$25 FY29 EPS as optical becomes a critical AI bottleneck
Evercore says CIEN can sustain ~30% sales and >35% EPS growth into FY29 as scale-across, DCI, coherent pluggables and emerging inside-DC opportunities broaden the growth stack, with optical increasingly the gating factor for AI monetization. Evercore sees FY29 revenue at ~$14B with ~50% GM and 32–35% operating margins, supporting >$25 of EPS versus $12.10 in FY27. Evercore also sees upside from CPO/NPO and inside-DC products largely absent from current targets, while supply constraints should keep industry pricing/mix favorable through at least 2028; upgrades to Outperform and raises PT to $550 from $375.
Anthropic/OpenAI
OpenAI: $278B cash burn through 2030 keeps financing in focus – FT
FT reports OpenAI projects $278B of cumulative negative free cash flow in 2026–30, improved from $305B forecast in May, alongside $856B of compute and infrastructure spending. Its presentation suggests the $122B raised in March runs out in 2028, even as annual revenue is forecast to reach $350B in 2030. FT highlights the funding dependency for suppliers including Nvidia and Oracle.
ACN/Anthropic: Anthropic to Embed Accenture Evaluators to Test AI Safety
Bloomberg says Anthropic is embedding Accenture evaluators inside the company to red-team new models, test safeguards, and independently assess whether it is meeting its safety commitments. The move follows Dario Amodei’s call for third-party oversight of frontier labs, with Anthropic and Accenture committing at least $1B to build out the effort, though Bloomberg notes Accenture’s deep commercial ties to Anthropic and other AI labs may raise questions around its independence.
Anthropic: November IPO targeted as investors see over $110B year-end run rate – WSJ / NYT
WSJ reports Anthropic is targeting November rather than October, allowing it to present Q3 results after Astra’s launch; timing remains fluid. Investors envision a roughly $2T valuation, up to $100B raised and over $110B in year-end annualized revenue. NYT separately reports expectations above $100B and a possible public filing within weeks. These are reported expectations, not completed financing or recognized annual revenue.