Good morning. QQQs -65bps / SPY 33bps to start the week as yields continue to hit new highs up 5-6bps across the curve. Oil +3.5% as Trump rejected Iran’s ceasefire proposal while still claiming additional negotiations will take place this week (Iran media said no such talks are scheduled). A separate WSJ report said Trump is prepared to resume bombing after the mid-terms.
In Tech, Semis -1.5% leading the way lower after last week’s outperformance desite NVDA +1% after tacking on $150B to their existing buyback authorization. CPU -2-3% as talk over the weekend shifted from hype to how much of a tailwind consumer agentic actually is to CPUs (see Freda Duan’s post here). Software/Internet -50bps as META -3% digests the big move the last two weeks.
Overnight, Asia mixed: TPX -0.4%, NKY -0.73%, Hang Seng +0.54%, HSCEI +0.63%, SHCOMP -1.67%, Shenzhen -3.07%, Korea KOSPI -2.7%. Samsung/SK Hynix -5%.
This week, we get OAI Dev Day Tuesday, MU & JBL earnings Wednesday, ACN Earnings on Thursday, MDB investor day Tuesday and SNPS/HPE Investor Days on Wednesday.
Lots to get to , so let’s get to it…
NVDA: Adds $150B to buyback, not $235B outstanding. Reminder,. Jensen is marketing with sell side this week in NYC and Boston.
NVDA / BABA: China weighs new chip approvals; ByteDance considers 1M units – The Information
The Information reports Chinese officials are considering allowing Alibaba and ByteDance to buy Nvidia’s RTX Pro 5500, with ByteDance weighing an order for roughly 1M chips. The Information notes Nvidia aims to begin shipments in late December and supply about 500,000 chips per quarter to China, priced at RMB85,000–90,000 each. Officials have asked buyers about planned volumes and uses, and told some they intend to approve purchases.
RBLX: Jefferies downgrades to Underperform/$38, sees slower bookings recovery + margin pressure despite positive LT investments
Jefferies says the ~30% post-Q2 rally embeds too optimistic a 12-month bookings trajectory, with U.S./Canada DAUs unlikely to reaccelerate quickly as viral-game cohorts churn and the new algorithm shifts toward longer-term retention. Jefferies models just 5% FY27 bookings growth vs. Street at 13% and cuts FY27 bookings/EBITDA by 6%/21%, as higher creator payouts and AI/infrastructure investment delay EBITDA margin expansion until FY28. Downgrades to Underperform from Hold, maintains $38 PT.
RBLX: JPM says engagement softened modestly w/w, but Roblox remains relatively insulated from Meta Horizon competition
JPM says peak CCUs fell ~4% w/w to 27.7M, though September y/y declines improved to -12% from -25% in August and viral engagement remains strong. Meta’s Horizon Create/Studio could create longer-term competitive pressure for RBLX/U, but JPM argues Roblox’s scale, dense developer ecosystem and more advanced creation tools should provide meaningful insulation.
OpenAI: Pauses advanced model training after new escape; user images leaked – Bloomberg / Reuters / WSJ
Bloomberg reports OpenAI paused tool-use training on its most capable models after another system escaped an internet-free testing environment; it will not resume training that particular model. An alert was acknowledged within minutes, but stopping the run took more than two hours. Reuters reports agents also leaked 53 ChatGPT-user images, and the broader investigation could take months. Separately, WSJ reports agents made more than 16,000 requests to a UN data site and bypassed a blocking filter; the UN said no confidential data was compromised.
Anthropic / AI policy: White House outreach precedes Tuesday AI meetings – FT / Bloomberg
FT reports Trump arranged a Sunday-night White House dinner with Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei ahead of Tuesday’s meetings with AI industry leaders. Bloomberg reports lawmakers are pursuing testing and disclosure requirements, but legislation is unlikely before the midterm elections. FT notes the outreach follows a court decision keeping the Pentagon’s ban on Anthropic products in place.
SNOW: Announces $3.5B Convert offering. SVP of Sales for Americas annonuced on LinkedIn leaving for OAI.
PATH: D.A. Davidson downgrades to Underperform/$10, says AI pricing pressure clouds ARR acceleration
D.A. Davidson says FUSION/Investor Day reinforced PATH’s orchestration strategy but customer/partner feedback showed increasing resistance to AI pricing, with cheaper agent alternatives emerging. The firm sees 4Q ARR risk and slower FY28 growth despite AI products representing ~60% of 1H FY27 NARR, and cuts PT to $10 from $16.