TMTB Morning Wrap
Good morning. Futures +30bps as Semis +1% higher this morning. MRVL +11% continues to follow through after Jensen’s $1T comment and it being seen by many as a leading candidate for SP500 add on Friday. INTC +6% after some positive comments at BofA while AMD/ARM following early. Optical soft early after rebounding yesterday. Software -1% is lagging as GTLB -6% and PANW -3% both sold off despite initial pops.
In macro land, Oil is up 3% with yields up 3-4bps across the curve on another outbreak of violence in Middle East between US and Iran (US intercepted Iranian missiles & drones targeting neighboring countries and struck a command center in Iran). Trump admin also planning extra tariffs of 10% for most trading partners including Canada, Mexico, Taiwan, and UK. An 12.5% additional tariff would be imposed on China, Japan, India, South Korea, Brazil and Switzerland and dozens of other countries.
“The failure of our most important trading partners to address the importation of goods made with forced labor is unacceptable. This creates a dynamic where American workers are forced to compete globally on an unlevel playing field”
Asia mixed as Korea was closed: TPX +1.83%, NKY +2.5%, Hang Seng -1.56%, HSCEI -1.9%, SHCOMP +0.22%, Shenzhen +0.27%, Taiwan TAIEX +1.98%.
Lots to get to, so let’s get to it…We’ll hit PANW & GTLB first, then the usual….
PANW: Broad beat-and-raise & strong FY26 guide, but concerns around organic growth weighing on the stock.
Numbers were solid, with Revs, NGS, ARR, RPO, OM, and FCF all beating. FY26 guide rev guide of +24% was better than street at 22% and in line with bogeys. NGS ARR guide of 59-60% better than street at 54% and a touch ahead of bogeys. However, lots of debate overnight about how much is organic in that FY26 guide, with most putting the FY26 organic ARR guide only being raised in line with the 20M Q3 beat, which is a bit of a disappointment vs the heightened expectations going in. With mgmt also deciding to no longer plans to disclose M&A contribution separately, raises more concerns around how to model organic growth going forward. Still, overall numbers were very solid, demand commentary was positive, and shouldn’t shake bulls conviction in the Cyber trade.