TMTB Morning Wrap

Good morning. Futures -6bps to start the week and Crude +8% after negotiations broke down in Pakistan and Trump ordered a naval blockade of Hormuz beginning this morning at 10am ( the US Navy is focused on interdicting ships traveling to/from Iranian ports, not all vessels moving through the waterway.); Trump doing his usual negotiation hijinks saying Iran wants to return to the negotiating table while the ceasefire continues.

Asia mixed overnight: TPX -0.45%, NKY -0.74%, Hang Seng -0.9%, HSCEI -0.61%, SHCOMP +0.06%, Shenzhen +0.54%, Taiwan TAIEX +0.11%, Korea KOSPI -0.86%.

Hope everyone had a good weekend. Let’s get to the good stuff….

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SNDK: Added to Nasdaq 100

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NBIS: Freedom Downgrades to Hold, Raises PT to $154 — Loves the Company but Stock Has Run Too Far

Freedom downgrades NBIS to Hold (from Buy) after a +70% move since initiating at $85 in February, calling shares overbought even with above-Street estimates for 2026/2027. The firm explicitly notes this is a genuine Hold, not a disguised Sell — they still raise PT to $154 (6x 2027 EV/adj. EBITDA) as the 310MW Finland DC announcement builds confidence in 2027 forecasts. Two cautions: the rumored AI21labs acquisition (~$2B valuation, ~$50M rev, stuck at that level for 3 years) could be a relatively large deal investors may not like, and the Finland capacity is “contracted power” not “active power” — contributing to NBIS’s 3GW target but not yet generating revenue.

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AMZN: Evercore ISI Reiterates #1 Net Long/$285 PT — Mythos on Trainium Could Trigger GOOGL-Like Narrative Shift

ISI Tech Spec K.Rippy posits Mythos was trained on Trn 2. His argument in a nutshell: