TMTB Morning Wrap

Good morning. Futures +50bps. Asia mixed overnight: TPX -0.28%, NKY -0.32%, Hang Seng -0.29%, HSCEI -0.5%, SHCOMP -0.26%, Shenzhen -0.13%, Taiwan TAIEX +1.94% Korea KOSPI +0.9. Memory names strong with Samsung +4%; Nanya +5% and Kixoia +8%. U.S. memory/storage names (SNDK +5% / MU +5% / WDC +4% / STX +4%) following along after insider purchase at MU. AI semis leading the way higher early. BTC and yields flat. Warsh is now 10% ahead of Hassett on Polymarket for next Fed Chair.

Let’s get to it…

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KLAC: Morgan Stanley Upgrades to OW, Sees Foundry Logic WFE Revisions and Memory Upside

Morgan Stanley upgrades KLA to Overweight and raises its price target to $1,697, arguing near-term foundry logic WFE revisions could be as powerful as memory, with memory process control still underappreciated. The firm says AI-driven capacity constraints are shifting incremental capex toward foundry logic, driving stronger-than-expected WFE revisions in 2026–27, while KLA’s share of TSMC capex rises on increasing process-control intensity. The analyst raises CY26/CY27 EPS by 7%/14% on higher logic exposure and sustained memory strength, noting KLA’s memory share gains across DRAM and NAND remain a key catalyst, with Analyst Day seen as an opportunity to reinforce the multi-driver growth narrative.

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MU: Director/ex-TSM co-CEO buys ~26k

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RBLX: JPM Flags Weekend CCU Upside From Live Events and Age Verification

J.P. Morgan says Roblox is heading into a catalyst-heavy weekend with the Steal a Brainrot Bruno Mars event, an Escape Tsunami admin abuse event, and global age-verification enforcement. The firm expects platform and Escape Tsunami peak CCUs to set new highs Saturday, with upside if platform CCUs hold near ~26m and/or Escape Tsunami scales to ~3–5m CCUs versus ~1.2m last week; early interest stands at ~2.3m for Bruno Mars and ~8.3m for Escape Tsunami, which previously peaked near ~7.9m CCUs.