Wild election night as QQQs whipsawed from +1% to -2% overnight before rebounding to +1% int he early morning and now settling in at +30bps (although given the vol will likely be stale by the time you read this).
Democrats had a great night. As the blue tsunami gathered steam last night and Republican Gov. Greg Abbott appeared headed for defeat in Texas, the All-In crew captured the mood of shell-shocked AI investors everywhere on last night’s All-in pod:
Gerstner had some comments on what the Abbott loss means for the buildout, saying 10 - 15 GW expected in 2027 may not come online vs consensus of 43GW next year (h/t Akh):
"But now with this blue wave, I think it’ll slow it down even more. So I think we could see at least 10 to 15 gigawatts of the expected build not come online, which, you know, that’s why I think it’s going to be really challenging for the AI infra trade."
"We have the dollars to pay for it. But imagine what we’re going to hear, Chamath, for the next two weeks out of the governors, out of Speaker Hakeem Jeffries or Leader Schumer. They ran on slowing down AI. That was their principal agenda.”
So what does a blue wave and Gina Hinojosa win in Texas actually mean? There was already a pause in Texas (ERCOT stopped advancing new large load approvals in the summer) and tech DC regulation could tighten but a shutdown or genuine moratorium looks unlikely (Hinojosa faces major legislative opposition). Her platform asks for a more stringent set of rules for DCs, but not a complete shutdown:
At the very least, the debate across the country likely shifts to a much more restrictive environment that likely constrains the supply curve.
So who wins and loses in Tech?