TMTB: Morning Wrap

TMTB will be on vacation from 6/30 - 7/11. This is our last post until then.

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Good morning. QQQs +50bps as risk on continues helped by some positive trade news (US -china deal from Geneva/London was signed and Lutnick said 10 separate trade agreements possible in near future). BTC -80bps. Yields are ticking up 2-3bps across the curve. Fed expects continue to price in ~60bps worth of cuts this year.

Let’s get to it..

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AI Power: Trump plans executive orders to power AI growth in race with China

Reuters:

The Trump administration is readying a package of executive actions aimed at boosting energy supply to power the U.S. expansion of artificial intelligence, according to four sources familiar with the planning.

Top economic rivals U.S. and China are locked in a technological arms race and with it secure an economic and military edge. The huge amount of data processing behind AI requires a rapid increase in power supplies that are straining utilities and grids in many states.

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AMZN: BNP Paribas Exane Upgrades to Buy, Cites Improving Spend Intentions and Strength in Cloud & Retail

BNP Paribas Exane upgraded AMZN to Buy, citing stabilizing and improving IT spend trends based on their latest CIO survey and a favorable shift in sentiment toward AWS. While AWS spending intentions dipped slightly year-over-year (46% of respondents expect to increase spend vs. 49% last year), the firm sees this as a sign of stabilization amid a broader enterprise recalibration of cloud budgets. AWS still shows meaningful intent among large enterprises, and Exane believes the worst of the cloud slowdown may be behind. Beyond cloud, the upgrade reflects strengthening momentum in Amazon’s retail operations, particularly its rural Same-Day delivery buildout and robust Prime ecosystem. The firm also sees Amazon’s leadership in advertising and AI infrastructure positioning it as a long-term winner across multiple verticals. BNP expects multiple expansion as growth reaccelerates into FY26, especially with operating margins trending higher.

Read through the upgrade, not much there and kind of weak tbh…BofA had an interesting chart yesterday showing that AMZN tends to rally 3% the 5 days into Prime day while XRT underperforms - recall this year’s Prime day is 4 days vs 2 days past several years.

3P data / intra q checks continue to point to ~3-4ppts beat to NA Retail

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TTD: Evercore ISI Upgrades to Outperform, Raises PT to $90; Sees Improving Execution and 2026 Growth Setup

Evercore ISI upgraded The Trade Desk to Outperform from In-Line and raised its price target to $90, citing better Kokai execution, strong product momentum, and a favorable setup heading into FY25–26. Recent checks point to improved agency sentiment and accelerating ad demand, with TTD poised to exit FY25 with 20%+ ex-political spend growth. ISI sees further upside in FY26 from catalysts like the World Cup, Olympics, Kokai adoption, and Microsoft’s Xandr wind-down. While Amazon DSP is a headwind, ISI believes DV360 bears the brunt, with TTD well positioned to gain share in retail media and performance marketing.

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TTD: BofA Reiterates Buy, Sees 2Q in Line as Macro Uncertainty Fades

BofA reiterated its Buy rating on The Trade Desk with a $130 price target, expecting 2Q25 results to be at least in line with guidance—$686M in revenue and $261M in adj. EBITDA. The firm notes that macro-related caution has started to ease and sentiment improved through the quarter. Kokai adoption remains on track, and TTD is aiming for 100% adoption by year-end. BofA also sees early but promising momentum in TTD’s retail data efforts, as deeper retail integrations could position the company as a key off-site ad partner over the next year.

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META: Piper Reiterates Overweight, Raises PT to $808; Names Meta Top Large Cap Pick on AI-Driven Ad Tailwinds