TMTB Morning Wrap
There will be only Morning Wraps through Wednesday of this week. We’ll be back to regularly scheduled programming next week.
Good morning. Futures +1.3% bouncing back after Friday’s weakness and a week where sp500 closed lower every day of the week. Early strength broad based with Software & Semis both up 1.5%+ and Internet 1%+. Asia mainly green: NKY +0.1%, Hang Seng +1.5%, SHCOMP +1.1%, TAIEX +1.9%, KOSPI -0.2% but memory names weaker with SK Hynix -3%, Samsung -4%, Kioxia -4%.
Let’s get straight to good stuff…
Anthropic: Powerful Anthropic model, Fable 5, on track to return soon
The Trump administration is close to allowing Anthropic to restore access to its powerful Fable 5 model, which has been offline for 15 days because of security fears by the government, a source close to the situation tells Axios. Insiders expect the administration’s limits on Fable 5 could be lifted as soon as this coming week, the source said. A second source said conversations are expected to continue over the weekend, and Anthropic expects to restore Fable access soon.
CMCSA: Comcast to split cable business from media through NBCUniversal, Sky spinoff - Reuters
Comcast shareholders will have stakes in both companies, the company said in a statement on Monday. The separation is expected to take place in a year, and requires board and regulatory approvals. NBCUniversal will have the same dual-class share structure as Comcast, giving the Roberts family an out-sized say in management of both businesses.
NBCUniversal will hold the theme parks division, Universal film and television studios, the NBC and Telemundo broadcast networks, Peacock streaming service, and Bravo cable channel as well as the European media business, Sky. The remaining Comcast will hold the company’s broadband, wireless and cable-TV business.
CHTR/SPCX: SpaceX, Charter Discussed Mobile Phone Partnership in US - Bloomberg
META: Wells Fargo Says AI Compute Buildout Contains a Large, Unmodeled Monetization Option
Wells Fargo argues recent reports of Google limiting external compute availability reinforce Meta’s strategy of aggressively building owned AI infrastructure rather than relying on third parties. The firm believes investors are overlooking a significant call option from potentially leasing excess capacity, estimating each 1GW of compute could generate roughly $20B of revenue and $5.50+ of EPS, while noting its current model assumes zero compute resale revenue. With AI capacity projected to expand from 7.5GW at YE25 to 17.8GW at YE26, Wells believes the current investment cycle positions Meta to monetize infrastructure well beyond its core applications, making CapEx returns materially better than the market currently assumes.
STM: Barclays Upgrades on Improving AI and Industrial Outlook
Barclays upgraded STM to Equal Weight, arguing its prior gross-margin concerns have largely been resolved as the revenue outlook improves across multiple end markets. The firm sees upside from pricing, optical products, and satellite, modeling AI revenue increasing to €2.3B in 2027 from roughly €1B in 2026, while satellite revenue grows to €1.3B in 2027 from €900M in 2026. Barclays expects optical demand to accelerate sharply in 4Q and believes consensus still underestimates STM’s 2027 revenue potential, prompting a PT increase to $65 from $34.
RBLX: Arete Upgrades on Underappreciated FY27 Bookings Upside
Arete upgraded Roblox, arguing the market now fully appreciates the company’s near-term investment cycle but is underestimating the earnings power that follows. The firm expects FY27 bookings to come in ~5% above Street, driven by accelerating user growth, new viral experiences, improved monetization, and a growing advertising business. With the stock trading near historical valuation lows, Arete believes the improving growth outlook and expanding profitability create an attractive risk/reward.