Good morning. QQQs 40bps / SPY +20bps/Yields down 2bps across the curve while Crude -1%. Relatively quiet overnight on the macro/war front.
In Tech, it’s Open AI Dev Day and Semis +1% are leading the way higher. Software -1% down early follow through on yesterday’s weakness after a MNDY -2% downgrade at JPM and ahead of MDB’s investor day, the day after losing their CEO. META +1.4% leading Megacaps higher after yesterday’s weakness.
Overnight, Asia mainly down. TPX -1.72%, NKY -0.6%, Hang Seng -0.48%, HSCEI -0.46%, SHCOMP +0.18%, Shenzhen +0.41%, Taiwan TAIEX -0.82%, Korea KOSPI -0.27%. Softbank -3%
Lots to get to, so lets get straight to it…
NFLX: DB upgrades to Buy/$95, says international engagement + valuation outweigh U.S. time-spent concerns
DB says the market is overly focused on softer U.S. engagement, while international viewing remains healthy, with ROW minutes +5.4% in 1H26 versus U.S. minutes -8.6%. The firm sees Netflix’s global production scale, platform expansion into podcasts/games and AI as a net tailwind, while valuation at ~18x 2027E EPS now offers a more attractive entry point. Upgrades to Buy from Hold, lowers PT to $95 from $100.
MNDY: JPM downgrades to Neutral/$87, sees funnel creation + net-new ARR headwinds outweighing cheap valuation
JPM says partner checks point to lengthening SMB/mid-market sales cycles and continued pressure on funnel creation, with NDR slipping to 109% and stronger growth increasingly concentrated in >$100K customers. AI products contributed ~17% of 2Q net-new ARR but still represent <1% of total ARR, making them too small to offset near-term growth deceleration. JPM cuts estimates, sees further moderation into 2027 and downgrades to Neutral from OW with an $87 PT.
Anthropic: IPO filing reveals $518B compute commitments and $8.1B operating loss – Reuters
Reuters reports Anthropic’s 2025 revenue rose twelvefold to nearly $4.6 billion, while its operating loss reached $8.06 billion and compute/infrastructure spending tripled to $7.33 billion. It could seek an IPO valuation above $2 trillion. Reuters’ follow-up says about 80% of its $518 billion infrastructure commitments are non-cancelable or payable regardless of use, including $161.2 billion of Broadcom-related equipment leases and minimum spending of $111.1 billion with Google, $110 billion with Amazon and $31.4 billion with Microsoft. Its $42 billion net loss included a roughly $34 billion non-cash financing charge. Reuters also reports seven co-founders will control 50.1% of voting power on key matters through Founder LLC, while the company can prioritize public benefit over shareholder returns. The filing warns of catastrophic AI risks; two customers supplied nearly a quarter of revenue.
OpenAI: Cuts usage on Pro $200 subscription
