Good morning. Futures +90bps following strong earnings from NVDA and the software crowd (CRM, CRWD, OKTA, VEEV all good). Semis +2.5% leading the way higher but Software +2% not far behind while Interenet and hyperscalers lag as we see some fund flows shift back into NVDA this morning.
Overnight, Asia generally mixed: TPX +0.15%, NKY -0.2%, Hang Seng -0.34%, HSCEI -0.51%, SHCOMP +1.13%, Shenzhen +1.72%, Taiwan TAIEX +0.31%, Korea KOSPI +1.53%.
We get MRVL & WDAY earnings tonight. MSFT, LITE, NOW, and CRM at DB Conference.
We’ll hit NVDA, CRM, CRWD, & OKTA recaps first then move onto the usual. Let’s get to it…
NVDA: Supply-Constrained +70% FY28 Guide vs street at ~50% steals the show, overshadowing in-lineish q and GM step down
No one had a 70% FY28 guide on their bingo cards heading in and that was the big surprise of the night, especially against a positoining backdrop going in that skewed slightly short. For context street was in low 40s for FY28 and buyside in the 60% range. That now implies EPS of ~$17 in C27 vs buyside who was sitting around $16 and street at $12.65 heading in and pathway to $22+ in C28. The main negative was the GM stepdown to 72-73% (and even lower if you exclude the neocloud rev-share flows), but positive side of that is they ripped the bandaid off on lower GMs. Debate how big the 70% growth number was given it likely includes ~15% of pricing increases but street/buyside has already factored some of that pricing in.
Here’s some of my favorite investor feedback from the long, fun, and insightful earnings thread in TMTB Slack during the call yesterday: