TMTB Morning Wrap

I will be traveling this weekend so no EOD Wrap today and No weekly this weekend. Have a great one!

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Good morning. Futures +15bps after a set of solid earnings — this time it was internet and software which stole the show vs. semis. TWLO, TEAM beat handedly on the sw side while RDDT and ROKU both beat on the internet side (although RBLX was as bad as it gets). AAPL also helping after a much better product and GM guide. SNDK/WDC missed heightened expectations but not much in those prints to shake bulls. We go over everything below then get to the usual…

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SNDK -4%: Big beat and raise vs street but missed heightened bogeys. Main discussion point around increasing LTAs and what that means going forward.

Street numbers move materially higher, but elevated buyside bogeys were above the June guide on EPS and GM. Mgmt sounded good on the call with the biggest incremental item the NBM/LTA disclosure: 5 signed deals, $42B minimum RPO from the first 3, >$11B financial guarantees across 5, and >1/3 of FY27 bits already committed. Debate overnight centered on the push and pull of the increasing amount of LTAs: one on hand they improve multiple durability but at the same time caps peak-cycle EPS/GM upside if NAND keeps ripping. Buyside numbers all over the place here, maybe tick down a nudge, but center around CY26 EPS $140 and CY27 $210+. Bulls will say 8-10x that while bears will say throw a trough 4-5x multiple as those numbers are near peak. We continue to like the structural and cyclical bull case on SNDK despite r/r not being as exciting as it was a month ago before it ramped 90%. The print doesn’t change our positive view here, although we have to give some thought to how and if the narrative dynamic shifts given LTA focus. What does stock do today? No strong view here although it’s SNDK: it could go from -6% to +6% and round trip it all a couple times, and you’d still be like “hmm, yeah that’s SNDK.”