QQQs +25bps as we all await the big NVDA print tonight - market pricing a 1% day move tomorrow. BTC +2% to new highs. Yields ticking up 2-4bps across the curve. More geopolitics headlines with Reuters reporting Putin open to ceasefire talks with Trump, though won't make any territorial concessions and insists Ukraine scrap efforts to join NATO. FT said Marc Rowan (Apollo) has emerged as top contender for Treasury Secretary and will meet with Trump today. Follows recent reports that former Fed governor Kevin Warsh was the frontrunner for the job.
Bogeys for tonight:
NVDA:
Q3 Total Revs: $34.5B vs street at $33.2B ($2B ahead of the guide)
Q3 DC Revs: $31B vs street at $29.3B
Q3 GMs: 75%+ vs street at 75% and guide 74.4% to 75%
Q4 Total Revs: Total Rev guide $38B at midpt vs street at $37B - key number
Q4 GMs: Inline with street at 73.3% at the midpoint
PANW:
Q1 Billings: $2.2B, 8.5% y/y vs street at 6.5% y/y
Q1 NGS NNARR: ~$175M vs street $170M
Q2 NGS NNARR guide: $290M (street $285M)
SNOW:
Q3 Product revs: $875M vs guide $850-$855M
Q3 RPO: $5.3M vs street $5.25B
Q4 Product rev guide: $900M vs street at $895M
Good luck!
Let’s get to it…
AMZN: Will not increase US referral and FBA fees and will not introduce and new fees in 2025, while decreasing some new fees - link to AMZN blog
Was out yesterdaybut Wells Fargo has a note out this morning on this saying it is potentially a $2B headwind to N America OI and they think that Walmart’s competitive logistics and fulfillment offering likely having some impact. They note a $2B impact to NA OI would be a 7% cut to 2025 NA OI, implying something closer to 6.1% OI margins vs street at 7.2%
3P Roundup:
NFLX: Now we know why stock so strong last two days - Hearing 3p data saying Paul v Tyson was largest single day gross add in UCAN since 2020 and only 10% of those have cancelled since then. They also saw an uptick internationally
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