TMTB Morning Wrap

Reminder, we have FundaAI and team in TMTB Slack starting at 10:30am today

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Good morning. Futures -50bps and Oil +6% on news out of Iran over the weekend: Iran halted traffic through Hormuz less than 24 hours after saying ships could pass; US Navy seized an Iranian vessel in Hormuz while the ceasefire is set to expire tomorrow.

Asia mainly green: TPX +0.43%, NKY +0.6%, Hang Seng +0.77%, HSCEI +0.61%, SHCOMP +0.76%, Shenzhen +0.68%, Taiwan TAIEX +0.42%, Korea KOSPI +0.44%. Softbank +5%; Hynix +2%.

Earnings pick up this week with GEV, TEL, VRT, IBM, NOW, TSLA and TXN on Wed and INTC, NOK, SAP, and Hynix on Thursday

GOOG'‘s cloud next begins on Wednesday where we’ll likely hear more about next-gen TPUs. Rumors ChatGPT 5.5 (Spud) coming late in the week.

Should be another fun one. Let’s get straight to it…

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AMD/INTC/CPUs: MS Sees Shift to Agentic AI Driving CPU/Memory Bottlenecks and New Winners

Really good deep dive report on CPUs by MS - worth a read

Morgan Stanley says AI is shifting from generative to agentic systems, where orchestration, memory, and coordination—not just GPU compute—become the key bottlenecks, driving a structural increase in CPU and memory intensity across workloads. The firm estimates ~$32–60B incremental CPU TAM by 2030 (server CPU TAM ~$100B+) with CPUs increasingly acting as the control plane for multi-step agent workflows, while memory could capture ~26–77% of incremental DRAM demand. MS highlights that as system complexity rises, value shifts across the full stack (CPU, memory, substrates, interconnect), benefiting full-stack and infrastructure players, with the architecture evolving toward tightly integrated compute-memory-orchestration systems supporting persistent, multi-agent workloads.

Source: MS via Jukan05

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GTLB: RBC Downgrades to Sector Perform, PT $25; Limited Near-Term Upside Amid Multiple Headwinds

RBC downgrades GTLB to Sector Perform and cuts PT to $25, citing limited upside to estimates and a range-bound setup near term despite attractive long-term DevSecOps positioning. The firm highlights multiple headwinds including premium pricing pressure, SMB exposure, slower seat growth, elevated corporate layoffs, and ongoing competitive/product cycle risks, with DBNRR expected to remain under pressure. RBC adds Duo/DAP remains early with limited FY27 impact, leaving shares unlikely to re-rate near term, though the company remains a potential takeout candidate longer term.

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ANET: Evercore Adds to Tactical Outperform List; AI Networking Upside into Q1 Print