TMTB Morning Wrap

Good morning. QQQs +1.9% as Trump rolled out exclusion for smartphones, PCs, and more on Friday evening. We covered the news in our weekly yesterday so won’t go into that now…DELL up the most in pre-market which makes sense given they were likely to be most hurt by it + you get added benefit of AI tailwind…Yields are down 5-7bps across the curve…China +1.2%…BTC +2%

Let’s get straight to it…

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AAPL: Apple upgraded to Sector Weight from Underweight at KeyBanc

Keybanc's Brandon Nispel has upgraded Apple from "Underweight" to "Sector Weight" without specifying a price target. According to Nispel, last Friday's announcement exempting smartphones from tariffs represents "probably the best case scenario for Apple," making it unlikely that Keybanc's previous downside projection will materialize. The analyst believes this development "takes a big risk off the table" for the company, though he cautions that Apple isn't completely "out of the woods" given high fiscal 2026 growth expectations and potential consumer spending pullback. Nevertheless, Nispel suggests that the worst-case scenario of an escalating "tit-for-tat" trade war appears to be off the table, making it difficult to justify further downside for Apple shares.

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AAPL: Apple granted 'much needed reprieve' from 145% tariff, says UBS

UBS analyst David Vogt maintains a "Buy" rating on Apple with a $236 price target following the U.S. Customs and Border Protection Agency's announcement reducing smartphone tariffs from 145% to 20%. Vogt states that "this 12th hour change provides relief for Apple (and others) that would have faced significant economic headwinds." The firm had previously calculated that the higher 145% tariff would have reduced Apple's earnings by approximately 30% due to its heavy reliance on Chinese manufacturing despite decade-long diversification efforts. With the newly announced smartphone exemptions, UBS now estimates the 20% tariff impact at around 34 cents per share, representing a 5% reduction to their fiscal 2026 earnings estimate of $7.49.

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Third Party Data Roundup:

NFLX: Yipit estimating revs of 13.5% y/y vs street at 11.2% y/y / saying UCAN net adds below street but international inline to above street…M-sci saying Asia was strong but cancellation trends elevated in Q1 and early Q2. M-sci at 4.3M net adds vs street at 3.65M for Q1…Barclays this morning: “Netflix's domestic engagement declined seasonally in 1Q following a strong holiday season, but growth in March was barely positive despite easy comps from last year due to paid sharing”