TMTB Morning Wrap
TMTB will be out on holiday beginning tomorrow through next week
Good morning. QQQs -1% as the Momentum/AI semis unwind continues with Semis -3% and Software +70bps as China AI in conversations again today (Kimi K3 rumored to surpass Opus 4.8). Hyperscalers outperforming early as well with AMZN/GOOGL/MSFT all in the green. Korea -6% overnight with memory names down big: Kioxia-15%, Hynix-10%, Samsung-7.6%, Nanya-8% and US names following early: SNDK -7%; MU -5%; STX -6%.
TSM rev #s, capex, & AI commentary were solid although GMs missed bogeys and stock is down 4-5% early (more sell the news reactions following other AI semi prints like Samsung, ASML, and DOCN).
Lots to get to, so let’s get to it…
TSM: Capex and FY26 guide both above bogeys, but GMs misses bogeys for both Q2 and Q3
Bulls will like the better than expected FY26 guide of “slightly above 40%” vs bogeys in mid to high 30s and implied 48-49% for Q4 growth given the Q3 guide and positive AI commentary from mgmt; while bears pointing to weaker GMs and the below comment on weaker consumer markets