TMTB Morning Wrap

Good morning. QQQs +5bps ahead of Fed meeting today. Asian markets mixed overnight: NKY -0.1%, Hang Seng +0.4%, SHCOMP -0.2%, TAIEX +0.7%, KOSPI -0.2%, India -0.3%. HSTECH +0.5%, Semi Index +1%. Alchip+3.5%, Medaitek/Hynix+2.8%, GUC+2%, TSMC +1.7%. Yields slightly up. BTC -60bps.

We get ADBE ORCL and SNPS after the close. Barclays conference starts today.

Let’s get to it…

---

TSM: November sales +24.5% Y/y and (6.5%) M/M on a reported basis. This compares to 5-year Y/y and M/M November seasonality of +22.2% and (1.3%) respectively. Assuming Dec flat m/m, FY25 would come in at +37% USD, the usual 2-3pp beat vs guide

---

NVDA: China Weighs Nvidia Chip Purchase in Emergency Meetings With Tech Companies

TheInformation:

China on Wednesday gathered its biggest tech giants to discuss whether to allow them to buy Nvidia’s advanced H200 chips, as President Donald Trump’s recent decision to allow the export of the powerful hardware to the country suddenly complicated Beijing’s goal to become technologically self-sufficient.

Officials convened a series of emergency meetings with representatives from companies including Alibaba Group, ByteDance and Tencent Holdings, and asked them to assess their demand for the H200, for which China currently has no alternatives, according to two people with direct knowledge of the matter. The officials told the companies that they would soon be informed of the government’s decision, after officials compile their responses, the two people added.

---

NVDA: ByteDance, Alibaba keen to order Nvidia H200 chips after Trump green light, sources say

Reuters:

ByteDance and Alibaba have asked Nvidia about buying its powerful H200 AI chip after U.S. President Donald Trump said he would allow it to be exported to China, four people briefed on the matter told Reuters.

The Chinese companies are keen to place large orders for Nvidia’s second most powerful artificial intelligence chip, should Beijing give them the green light, two of the people said. However, they remain concerned about supply and are seeking clarity from Nvidia, one added.

---

NVDA/TSM

---