TMTB Morning Wrap

QQQ - 25bps as Trump said over weekend U.S. would charge a 30% tariff on goods from the EU and Mexico beginning Aug 1st. BTC +2% continues to rip hitting new ATHs. On the macro front, eyes on CPI tomorrow while Fed expects continue to price in 50bps worth of incremental cuts this year. China +75bps. Oil +1.5%. Yields ticking up slightly.

Good to be back…Let’s get straight to it…

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CRWD: Morgan Stanley Downgrades to Equal-weight on Full Valuation, Despite Strong Fundamentals

Morgan Stanley has downgraded CRWD from Overweight to Equal-weight, noting the stock's ~50% rally since April has priced in near-term growth catalysts. While the firm remains positive on CrowdStrike’s long-term position in cybersecurity and AI tailwinds, they argue the current 21x EV/CY26E Sales multiple already reflects high expectations and leaves limited room for upside. MS also points out a potential lack of new catalysts in Q2, limited visibility into CCP and Falcon Flex renewals, and elevated investor expectations following strong Q1 results. Despite the downgrade, the firm raised its price target slightly to $495, maintaining that CrowdStrike trades at a premium for good reason, citing strong leadership, platform expansion, and continued momentum across core modules.