TMTB Morning Wrap

Good morning. Futures +25bps. No big war news overnight other than news Iraq beginning to route some oil to Turkey via pipeline. Asia up overnight with Korea the standout with memory names strong (Samsung/SK Hynix +8%): TPX +2.49%, NKY +2.87%, Hang Seng +0.61%, HSCEI +0.1%, SHCOMP +0.32%, Shenzhen +0.97%, Taiwan TAIEX +1.51%, Korea KOSPI +5.04%,

MU Earnings on the docket tonight.

Lots to get to so let’s get straight to it…

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NVDA: Nvidia gets Beijing’s nod for H200 chip sales, adapts Groq chip for China, sources say -

Reuters:

Nvidia has won Beijing’s approval to sell its second-most powerful ​artificial intelligence chips to China and is also preparing a version of the Groq AI chip that can be sold to the ‌Chinese market, sources familiar with the matter said.

Nvidia is also preparing a version of the Groq AI chip that can be sold to the Chinese market, Reuters reported earlier on Tuesday, citing two sources familiar with the matter. It plans to tap Groq ​chips for what is known as inference, where AI systems answer questions, write code or carry out tasks for ​users. In the products ⁠Nvidia showed this week, the company plans to use its forthcoming Vera Rubin chips, which cannot be sold in China, in combination with the Groq chips.

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BABA/GDS/VNET: Alibaba Hikes AI Prices as Much as 34% to Meet Demand Surge - Bloomberg

Per Bloomberg, Alibaba is raising prices on its AI computing chips and cloud storage products by up to 34%, joining peers like Tencent and Baidu in moving to monetize surging AI demand. The hikes come as Alibaba undergoes a major restructuring to focus on AI profitability, having pledged over $53 billion toward infrastructure and AI development. The broader trend reflects growing pressure across Chinese and global tech giants to generate returns on massive AI investments.

Baidu also to raise prices for cloud service related products by up to +30% - Ming Pa

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OpenClaw/Agentic AI: Usage spiking on OpenRouter past two days

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OFC TAKEAWAYS

LITE: Funda.ai sas Long-Term Upside Potential as a Core Player in AI Optical Interconnects

Funda.ai notes that LITE is structurally positioned across all four key AI optical interconnect segments — cloud transceivers, OCS, scale-out CPO, and scale-up CPO — anchored by its InP manufacturing lead and UHP laser platform. Funda.ai highlights OCS as the most underappreciated driver, with a multi-billion-dollar agreement signed and >150% unit CAGR through CY28. The bigger story, Funda.ai says, is the copper-to-optical transition in scale-up fabrics: as bandwidth moves to 1.6T and 3.2T, optical becomes required even within racks, unlocking a TAM growing from $18B to $90B+ by 2030. Funda.ai points to management’s target model showing a path from ~43% gross margins today to 49–52% at the $8B annualized revenue stage. Funda.ai argues the architecture-level shift toward full opticalization is still early innings — with execution risk on CPO qualification timelines and capacity ramp as the key variable to monitor.

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LITE: Morgan Stanley Raises PT to $595 on Optical Content Growth and OCS Upside