TMTB Morning Wrap

Good morning. Futures -20bps. Asia mixed overnight: : TPX -0.77%, NKY -1.63%, Hang Seng -1.17%, HSCEI -1.09%, SHCOMP -0.07%, Shenzhen +0.17%, Taiwan TAIEX -0.25%, Korea KOSPI +0.03%. Softbank was down 7%. BTC -1.3%. Yields ticking up slightly.

Let’s get to it…

---

GOOGL: Cantor Upgrades to Overweight, Raises PT to $370 on AI Stack Leadership

Cantor Fitzgerald upgrades Alphabet to Overweight from Neutral and raises its price target to $370 from $310, citing what the firm views as the strongest footprint across multiple layers of the AI technology stack. Cantor says Alphabet’s decade-long AI investments have created deep competitive moats, positioning the company to benefit as AI adoption shifts “from the Frenzy to the Synergy phase.” The firm also notes easing regulatory pressure should allow Alphabet to better leverage its consumer and enterprise distribution to drive incremental upside.

---

ROKU: Evercore ISI Upgrades to Outperform, Raises PT to $145

Evercore ISI upgraded Roku from In Line to Outperform and lifted its price target to $145 from $105, arguing the earnings and cash flow outlook is stronger than reflected in current estimates. The firm says 2026 setup benefits from Amazon DSP integration, better platform monetization, premium subs growth, a home screen refresh, and a dense catalyst slate (World Cup, Winter Olympics, U.S. election), while noting the Street’s 15% platform revenue growth looks conservative versus its ~21% view. The analyst adds margins should expand, with 2026 Adj. EBITDA margin seen at 10.8% (+230 bps y/y), near-100% EBITDA-to-FCF conversion, and sustained GAAP profitability. Evercore raises FY26/27 EBITDA to $582MM/$786MM and highlights Roku’s ~5% 2027E FCF yield as attractive.

---

NVDA: Nvidia requires full upfront payment for H200 chips in China

Reuters:

Nvidia is requiring full upfront payment from Chinese customers seeking its H200 artificial intelligence chips, hedging it against ongoing uncertainty over Beijing’s approval of the shipments, said two people briefed on the matter.

The U.S. chipmaker has imposed unusually stringent terms requiring full payment for orders with no options to cancel, ask for refunds or change configurations after placement, the people said.

---

NVDA: China to Approve Nvidia H200 Buying as Soon as This Quarter

Bloomberg:

China plans to approve some imports of Nvidia Corp.’s H200 chips as soon as this quarter, according to people familiar with the situation, giving the company renewed access to a critical market.

Chinese officials are preparing to allow local companies to buy the component from Nvidia for select commercial use, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the deliberations are private.

---

CES 2026/Semis: GS Reinforces AI Demand; Analog Signals Incrementally Positive