TMTB Morning Wrap
Good Morning. Futures 20bps lower as Crude pops 3%. U.S./Iran had some small back and forth exchange of missiles/drones overnight, which is fueling concerns around a deal not being imminent although Pentagon insists these are “defensive” and ceasefire continues to hold.
In tech, we got a monster beat at SNOW +38% which helped knock out the 3 pillars bears were focused on: deceleration, margins, and AI disruption risk. MDB +9% and DDOG +4% up in sympathy along with some other software stocks. NBIS +9% on Leopold saying he has a 5% stake in the co. CRM boring print while MRVL was solid vs. high expects - both trading flattish. Semis -0.5% early with Software +1%
Asia mainly red: TPX -0.41%, NKY -0.47%, Hang Seng -1.27%, HSCEI -1.17%, SHCOMP +0.12%, Shenzhen +0.88%, Taiwan TAIEX -1.4%, Korea KOSPI -0.53%. Samsung -6%; Hynix -3%.
We’ll hit SNOW, MRVL, and CRM first then get the usual…
Let’s get to it…
SNOW +38% stellar quarter with product revenue reaccelerating to +34% y/y on biggest beat/growth since Q1 2025 vs bogeys closer to 30%. Guide 30% vs bogeys in mid 20s. Margins taken up. FY27 product revenue guide moved to +31%, and lots of CoCo goodness on the call supporting the AI beneficiary narrative
Just a good print all around with not much to nitpick at. Main fear had been 3 fold: deceleration, Cortex pressuring margins, and some concern around where SNOW fits in the AI picture. Earnings flipped the script on all of those in favor of the bulls. With the guide at 30%, if we assume average 3-4ppts beat, we get close to mid 30s growth next quarter on a 5ppts tougher comp. Then comps get easier, so hearing some bulls talking about mid/high 30s growth as we get into 2H’FY27. Positioning here had been on the lighter side with many favoring DDOG, and even MDB as of late, so the big move capturing some of that lighter sentiment this morning. We think path of least resistance likely higher here as SNOW still 15% below 2025 lows.