TMTB Mid-day Wrap

QQQs +1.8% continue to show remarkable strength as today’s rally is very broad-based following better than expected jobs report (what recession?). A slew of better than feared earnings from Tech co’s this week has investors feeling better, including some dovish trade talk from China this morning. WSJ article this afternoon: Beijing Weighs Fentanyl Offer to U.S. to Start Trade Talks

Yields are up on the news +6-11bps across the curve as Fed expects shifting in a hawkish direction now only implying ~80bps worth of uts on the year and down to 40% cut for the 6/18 meeting.

Stocks continue act well on earnings print. Beats are being bought up and following through - CART, DUOL, SPOT, NFLX, MSFT, META, SAP, NOW etc. - and so are misses. For example, CHKP and IBM above pre-earnings prices before they missed. TEAM only down 5% today. ETSY +6% today has recouped most of its miss. AMZN +1% today. Even macro sensitive names like ABNB +1% up on a miss. Even SNAP +7% (yes, SNAP!) rallying back.

Not the type of px action you see at tops imo. Our view continues to be choppy and upwards trending, but rally has happened quicker and faster than we expected.

We remain on our toes but price action is what it is as tariff news flow gets better - reminds of us the post-Covid shutdown rally - the main missing ingredient here is that Fed was pumping back then.

Demark out today calling for a top. Bloomberg:

US stocks are set for another decline that could ultimately usher in a bear market in the coming months, according to veteran technical strategist Tom DeMark. He previously called this year’s market peak in February and the subsequent low in April.

According to DeMark, a near-term market top may form within days. His firm, DeMark Analytics LLC, specializes in identifying key market turning points. He highlighted the 5,669 level — roughly where the market is currently trading — as a likely area where buyers will become exhausted.

On the flip side, plenty of bullish Thrust signals getting triggered and breadth is strong.

SOX +4% led the rally today as AI semis led the way higher — feels just like the good old times of ‘23/early ‘24.

We’re about half way through earnings but have the big ones out the way. Plenty left for next week.

Have a relaxing and fun weekend.

---

If you enjoy TMTB, please take a moment to share or forward to a friend or colleague who might also like subscribing. Reader sharing is our main avenue of growth. Thank you!

---

Let’s get to the recap…

---

INTERNET

• RBLX +5.8% following through yesterday, helped by news TTWO was delaying GTA VI’s release from the fall until May ‘26. We wrote up some thoughts in our EOD wrap yesterday…Also helped by the Epic court ruling….so is SPOT +7.5% (from my understanding no EPS benefit but process of upgrading more friction free…pls let me know if I’m wrong) and NFLX +1.7%, which is up 11 straight days now (META was 20 straight days earlier this year as it called the mkt top - so when we get to 21 we know we’re close)