TMTB: Gavin Baker on ITLB Key Quotes
Gavin Baker, Atreides Management on Invest Like the Best Podcast with Patrick O’Shaughnessy
#1 — Hyperscaler Assessments: Google, Meta, Amazon, Microsoft
Baker on Google: “They have the most compute of everyone. Google’s never not going to be in a good position. Between the amount of data they have — YouTube data is actually genuinely valuable in a world of robotics — the amount of compute they have, and the search business. If they don’t release something at Google IO that even slightly leapfrogs OpenAI and/or Claude, that’s interesting. It just means this Nvidia effect is even more powerful than I’d imagined.”
Baker on Meta: “You got to give Zuckerberg immense credit. He is the only one of those true internet giants to have made it an AI-first company internally. Muse was a really big upside surprise — the first model from MSL. It’s not on the Pareto frontier with XAI, Google, OpenAI, and Claude, but it’s pretty close. Very impressive.”
Baker on Amazon: “Amazon is in a really strong position because of Trainium. You’re going to see real P&L efficiencies from robotics over the next 18 months in their retail business. Nova, their internal models, are better than they get credit for.”
Baker on Microsoft: “Satya is a really brilliant man, but in investor conversations, people just don’t talk about him the way they did. He did go from ‘we’re going to make Google dance’ to being the product manager of Copilot in like three years. But I give him a lot of credit — he’s making a courageous decision to use compute internally rather than just selling GPUs to OpenAI. Microsoft would probably be an $800 stock today if they were using their GPUs to serve OpenAI and Anthropic’s capacity. So I give him a lot of credit for making a great decision.”
#2 — The Big Three Questions for AI Investors