TMTB EOD Wrap: Where does Nvidia (NVDA) go from here?

Good afternoon. QQQs +1% after a set of strong cloud numbers and a couple capex raises from the hyperscalers driving strength to semis while GOOGL +10% after standing out as the cleanest beat of the night yesterday,

Overall, price action in AI semis (outside of NVDA — more on that below), continues to look strong. Charts that have pulled back bouncing nicely off their ST MAs (AVGO, LITE, AMD). Misses are beating bought up quickly (CLS, TER, GLW). Beats are following through (NOK, STX, WDC, TXN, VRT, INTC). KLAC decent price action today. However, still some mixed tea leaves to watch. NVDA is one failing to breakout. Neoclouds are another. NBIS break out to new highs and then below previous resistance and breaking below MAs:

AMAT similar on neg RSI divergence:

So not everything is up and to the right like it was for most of April, but overall will say things still feeling and acting pretty good out there despite lots of conversations about things being “extended.” We think the tea leaves will guide on when the right time to be aggressive in cutting back AI semis exposure will be, and we’re just not there in our view. As always, we remain on our toes and will listen to the market.

AI/SEMIS

• NVDA -4% the main underperformer today vs. SOX, underperforming by a whopping 6%. This tweet encapsulates why it was down today:

Lot of good discussion in TMTB Slack last night on the topic here: