TMTB EOD Wrap; Intel (INTC), SAP First Takes

Good afternoon. QQQs finished -56bps as Semis led the way higher, up 17 straight days now in the biggest rally since early 200s. The baton was handed to analogs today leading the way higher after TXN’s beat and raise and bullish commentary around DC and AI Power along with Industrial. AI names more mixed but plenty of green there as well. Software massive 700bps underperformance vs semis after NOW’s miss. From a factor perspective, TMT Mo led the way higher.

Post-close, INTC +13% with much better GMs while beating and raising on all segments and calling out strength in CPUs

TMTB Slack

“The next wave of AI will bring intelligence closer to the end user, moving from foundational models to inference to agentic. This shift is significantly increasing the need for Intel’s CPUs and wafer and advanced packaging offerings,” said Lip-Bu Tan, Intel CEO. “With a solid foundation in place, we are addressing this opportunity by listening to our customers and driving their success with our technical expertise and differentiated IP. This deliberate reset to how we operate drove a sixth consecutive quarter of revenue above our expectations, as well as new and deepened relationships with strategic partners.”

“We delivered robust Q1 results, reflecting the growing and essential role of he CPU in the AI era and unprecedented demand for silicon, as well as our disciplined execution to expand available supply,” said David Zinsner, Intel CFO. “We remain focused on maximizing our factory network to improve available supply and meet our customers’ needs throughout the year.”

SAP +4% as well with CCB cc +25% better than buyside expects. A bit better than feared following NOW and after CEO was in FT talking about “short-term pain” Reit total rev growth accel in ‘27. Stock fading a bit as ‘26 seems like it was tweaked down a bit.

“Constant currencies total revenue growth in 2026 to remain at similar levels as in 2025 and to accelerate in 2027. The previous outlook assumed constant currencies total revenue growth to accelerate through 2027."

Lots of good discussion popping off for both names in TMTB Slack in #earnings channel

Chatgpt5.5 out in the wild. Benchmarks look solid - looks much better than Opus but slightly worse than Mythos. Model was “co-designed for, trained with, and served on NVIDIA GB200 and GB300 NVL72 systems”

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AI/SEMIS

• TXN +18% with a very solid beat-and-raise. We’ve totally whiffed on the whole analog rally, and we get sense many investors felt similar and many were chasing today as sector remains one of least owned in semis (outside of handsets). The TXN beat came on the back on several weeks of positive checks form Edgew/Clev and excitement building over the power theme. TXN sounded super bullish in DC and Industrial while consumer was fine. Bulls will say that TXN is finally lining up all the pieces bulls have wanted for the last two years: industrial is broadening beyond a narrow set of verticals, data center and AI power are becoming large enough to matter, pricing has stopped declining, and the company is moving out of its heaviest capex phase. Bulls will say 30x+ $12 gets you $350+, still 25% upside for a best-in-class analog co. as get into the DC power ramp in 2H 26 and 27.