TMTB EOD Wrap

Good afternoon. Great start to the week as QQQs +1.05%. Futures started the day in the red, but that was largely over in the early morning as investors focused on the less bellicose actions and language from Trump and Iran, the fact ceasefire continues and communications are ongoing. Situation is still fluid, but as long as things aren’t getting worse, investors continue to re-gross up. Oil +1.5%. Yields fell 3-4bps across the curve while fed expects shifting in a slightly dovish direction.

In Tech, while last week was all about software selling, today we saw a big rebound in software with IGV +5.6%. Why the move? Doesn’t take much fuel to trigger a rally with most names sub 20 RSI after last week’s capitulatory selling. Sentiment had bottomed — here’s how we framed it in yesterday’s weekly:

If we were to put our sentiment bull hat on, we’d say that infra sw stocks finally getting puked on the Anthropic managed agents release was the last place investors were hiding, and was the last shoe to drop. The fact long-term holders of NET like me sold this past week is a sign of capitulation. Now the healing can begin.

In addition, a few on the sell-side were out defending infra sw while some non-perfect headlines like these around Anthropic might have helped:

The IGV chart is showing our preferred bullish scenario which is a “false breakdown” below key support and popping back above it today: