TMTB EOD Wrap

Good afternoon. QQQs with a flat close for the 2nd straight day. Oil finished +5%. BTC +70bps. Yields up 5-7bps across the curve as Fed expects moved in a slightly more hawkish direction with most not expecting a cut until Sept.

On the war front, Iran signaled it will continue offensive strikes rather than just retaliatory ones and warned oil could surge to $200 if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Israel said war will continue “indefinitely.” Trump attempted to calm markets by suggesting the conflict could end soon and that oil prices would fall, while the IEA announced a release of ~400M barrels from strategic reserves to offset supply disruptions.

In macro land, sentiment a bit pressured by continued news of stress in private credit markets, after reports that JPMorgan marked down some loan portfolios and tightened lending to the sector, while Cliffwater’s flagship fund faced significant redemption requests

MS launched a US OpenClaw beneficiary basket (MSXXCLAW). Names in that basket stood out today catching a bid: NET +2.6%; AKAM +2%; DOCN +11%; INTC +2.5%; AMD +80bps; EQIX +2% among others (they also included some security names in there). Their China OpenClaw basket has rallied significantly over the last couple of months. Outside of that, withing Tech, memory outperformed, networking, semis, and hardware were modestly higher, while telecom, gaming, and parts of software/internet lagged. At the factor level, high-beta tech (non-profitable tech, momentum, Bitcoin-related) outperformed, while quality and secular growth factors underperformed. Semis outperformed software by 50bps.

Let’s get to the good stuff…

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AI / SEMIS

• NBIS +16% as they announced an NVNDA partnership with them accelerating infrastructure build out to >5GW by end of 2030, which builds on NBIS’ current target of >3GW by YE 2026. 5GW = $50B in revs as 1GW roughly = $10GW. The agreement includes plans a $2B Nvidia investment via a warrant structure for roughly 21M share. The companies also aim to integrate Nvidia’s software capabilities with Nebius’ platform to support large-scale agentic and inference workloads…Heard semianalysis was also out talking up NBIS as a beneficiary given their shorter contract durations as demand for GPUs continue to spike from Anthropic’s insatiable demand. Set up sounds good here. One of the first rangebound semis to break out of its range:

  

  Source: Bloomberg

  Uber bull case here from friend of TMTB @dratchcap: