TMTB EOD Wrap
What happened to all the HOT AI Summer vibes while I was gone? I’m out for a few days and come back to an AI semis market where SNDK can’t even manage to be green on a day Semis are up 2%. We’re still feeling into the “new” current market environment as we get back up to speed and plugged in before taking any strong opinions, but what’s seemingly evident is this is an environment different than April/May/early June, one where bulls are finding it tougher to hand-wave the bears away with their usual “token demand growth continues unabated” and “open source is good for all picks and shovels” arguments. Does that environment last? We’re still feeling it out. As for now, sharpening our r/r math on certain names that have been hit, being a bit more aggressive and mindful on any short-term shifts in narratives on names, and expecting to see continued L/S bifurcation within the AI semis space. Chat GPT-5.6 on the docket tomorrow.
Today, QQQs finished up 1.4% with semis +2% outperforming although semis underperformed throughout the trading day, trailing QQQs by 1.5%+ after the open with Miners +5%, HDDs +6%, & AI Power +3% leading the way higher. A lot of single name moves driven by the news that Kyber NVL144 were being delayed by more than 12 months caused by midplane yield issues even though NVDA came out and said their AI chip “roadmap remains intact.”
More details on individual moves/read-throughs below.
Outside of semis, security continues to lead the way in software as names like OKTA, PANW, and CRWD all hitting 52wk highs after a couple of positive sell-side checks early which called out improving demand.
Good to be back. Let’s get to the good stuff…
AI/SEMIS
As mentioned above, a lot of moves today based on the Kyber delay news: