TMT Breakout

TMT Breakout

TMTB EOD Wrap; Coreweave (CRWV); Lumentum (LITE) First Takes

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TMT Breakout
Aug 11, 2026
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Good afternoon. QQQs -30bps on a fairly slow August day. Semis +1% led the way higher.


Post-close earnings:

CRWV +10% looks a bit better with Op Income above at 5% well above bogeys of 3% (revs a tad lighter), but noted $25B of net new customer commits early Q3 ($104B backlog does not include this number). Capex of $9.4B vs bogeys of $8.5B. RPO +$4B q/q. 1.5GW of active power which tracks well (FY guide 1.7GW and capacity adds back half weighted) Guide will be given on call. NBIS +6% in sympathy. Neoclouds outperformed today on the NVDA $500B partnership read-through, and this should be continued fuel tomorrow.


LITE flat looks solid w the guide the bigger positive. F4Q/C2Q came in ahead across revenue, margins and EPS, while F1Q/C3Q revenue guidance is ~8% above Street at the midpoint and EPS is ~16% above. This looks inline to better vs. bogeys and op inc suggests operating leverage is coming through faster than modeled. LITE says it will reach its target model more than a quarter ahead of schedule.

F4Q / C2Q

  • Revenue: $1.006B vs Street $990M

  • Adj. GM: 50.4% vs 48.8%

  • Adj. op margin: 36.6% vs 35.3%

  • Adj. EPS: $3.23 vs $2.97

  • Components: $649M vs $637M

  • Systems: $357M vs $350M

F1Q27 / C3Q Guide

  • Revenue: $1.225–1.275B / $1.250B midpoint vs Street $1.159B

  • Adj. op margin: 39.5–40.5%

  • Adj. EPS: $4.05–4.35 / $4.20 midpoint vs Street $3.6


Let’s get straight to the recap…

AI/SEMIS

  • DELL -4% as Fubon was out saying their checks show SPCX and CRWV planning to buy Ai servers from Taiwan ODMs instead of purchasing 100% from DELL likely starts in 2027. Pushback:

  • NVDA flat as NVDA’s $500B deal. Some of the intg takes in TMTB Chat today:

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