TMTB EOD Wrap

Good afternoon. QQQs +2% with a huge green day led by— yup, you guessed it — semis +4.5%. Oil -6% on some better news out of the Middle East with yields falling 5-8bps across the curve. Very busy post-close, so let’s just dive right in then get to the recap….

Post-close:

ARM +7% numbers mixed and some head scratching in conversations about why stock up 7% after being up 13% today. Licensing beat offsetting royalty with the guide largely in-line. Expects had been very high here following INTC/AMD and bulls want to hear similar bullishness on the call around CPUs. Stock fading a bit as I write this now only +3%

C1Q/F4Q revenue $1.49B vs. Street $1.47B, Royalty revenue missed at $671M vs. Street $691M, while license revenue beat at $819M vs. Street $780M.
C2Q/F1Q guide broadly in line, with revenue/EPS guided to $1.26B/$0.40 vs. Street $1.25B/$0.365. No change to LT guide from analyst day, but they raised AI CPU orders guide to $2B vs the $1B they talked about at analyst day

The launch of the Arm AGI CPU, their first production silicon for the data center, with Meta as lead partner/co-developer. They cited more than $2 billion of customer demand across FY27 and FY28 (more than double what was stated at launch) and a path toward their $15 billion forecast. More than 50 leading companies were named as supporting the platform expansion, including AWS, Broadcom, Google Cloud, Microsoft, NVIDIA, Oracle, Samsung, and TSMC.

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DASH +16% as GOV inline for the q and better than buyside expects for the guide. Expectations weren’t high here given gas charges and storm impacts, but should help alleviate some bear concerns around growth and margins. Q2 EBITDA also above guiding to $770M - $870M vs street at $830M and expectations that were slightly below.