TMTB EOD Wrap

Good afternoon. QQQs -35bps as the tape proved fairly resilient and bounced off the 10d despite a set of ingredients (oil/china up, stocks not rallying on good news, a bit investor fatigue around AI news, some AI spec names dn HSD+ ) that could have taken it lower. This week and next offer the best window for digestion/pullback if we’re going to get it - we’ll see what happens.

BTC +1.4%. Treasuries saw selling pressure as new home sales beat + some hawkish rhetoric from Gollsbee and yields were up 3-5bps across the curve although fed expects didn’t move much.

Let’s get to it…

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INTERNET

• EBAY +2.6% as M-sci said US GMV accelerated in Q3

• AMZN -23bps despite Wells Fargo jumping on the ‘26 AWS acceleration boat given Project Rainer ramps, saying it could add 5-7% to growth in ‘26/’27 - this view largely consensus at this point, but still lots of debate around when we begin to see it in the numbers.

• TikTok: Trump will sign the TikTok deal on Thursday, source says…A senior White House official confirmed to NBC News on Wednesday that once the deal is implemented, TikTok’s U.S. operations would be run by a new joint-venture company. ByteDance, TikTok’s current China-based owner, will hold less than 20% of the stock of the new company, the official said….a senior White House official confirmed that as part of the deal, American users’ data will be stored in the U.S. and overseen by the software and cloud computing company Oracle. They added that the platform’s algorithm will be retrained and continuously monitored to ensure that U.S. content is free from any outside manipulation….

• META +75bps helped by the Tiktok news and PR that said Instagram hit 3B users

• BABA +8% after talking up capex and signing new partnership with NVDA surrounding Robotics. VNET +13% / GDS +9% in sympathy — MS had a pretty bullish VNET note, saying they estimate that Alicloud’s DC capacity was 2.5Gw in 2022, and could grow to 25GW by 2032 which translates into a >3Gw per year new capacity in ‘26 - ‘32, which is basically as large as their current estimate for the market this year.