TMTB EOD Wrap; AMD ANET ALAB BKNG LSCC First takes
How things can change in just a few days in AI/Tech land. With QQQs +3.4%, we’ve gone from the “Leopold Low” to QQQs up ~10% in roughly four sessions, SOX up 15%+, and the AI vibes beginning to percolate again (eg, “Is RSI coming in the fall?”). Apparently, the market only knows how to travel at high speed; it just feels a lot more rational when the direction is up.
We’re now back where we were before the Leopold “unwind” began, which makes sense and was what we wanted to see as a first stop for semis as investors have gotten more confident throwing back on gross over the past couple days. That was the relatively easy trade, or at least the kind that becomes obvious ~15% after the bottom. From here, it gets tougher, and we shift back into a bit of “wait-and-see mode,” letting the market & nascent better AI vibes breathe and give us a better sense of where we’re headed next, but base case still remains choppy but higher over the next few weeks.
Post-close ANET/ALAB delivering the goods while fell AMD short of bogeys. These comments from Elon have NVDA +1% in the post:
The world we are in:
Overall, another very healthy day breadth wise with Internet, software and AI semis all rallying while hypersscalers digested the recent vertical moves since late last week.
Let’s get to it…
Post-close earnings:
AMD -7%: Beat-and-raise, but below elevated buyside expectations for a crowded stock which leaned long into the print. Q2 came in at $11.5B vs bogeys closer to $12B and Q3 guide $13B at midpoint vs bogeys closer to $13.2B. Nothing here changes the bull debate as narrative centered around ‘27 and beyond. Definitely a miss of expectations, but imagine Lisa sounds bulled up on future product cycle (DC and GPU) and want to hear about Helios/GPU ramp in Q4 and CY27.
2Q Results
Revenue: $11.54B vs Street at $11.31B vs. bogeys of $12B
GM: 56.2% vs Street at 55.8%
EPS: $1.66 vs Street at $1.62
Data Center: $6.72B, or 58% of revenue, vs Street at $6.55B
Client: $3.06B vs Street at $3.00B
Gaming: $779M vs Street at $814M
Embedded: $977M vs Street at $978M
3Q Guide
Revenue: $13.0B vs Street at $12.5B vs bogeys of $13.2B
GM: 56.0% vs Street at 56.25%