TMTB EOD Wrap: Amazon, Nvidia / Lumentum (LITE) investor mtg recaps and more...

Good afternoon. QQQs +50bps as markets remain somewhat choppy but hung in there today as investors took some of the overnight Iran news as positive (a pair of Iran leaders killed, some tankers beginning to go through Hormuz though it remains effectively shut). Yields flat to down 2bps. Oil +3%.

Tech led by HDDs & memory, travel and large cap internet (AMZN/GOOGL). Same name of the game in AI semi land with memory, hdds, optical, semicap, etc. outperforming GPUs/ASICs which continue to struggle to get a bid (NVDA, AVGO, AMD). From a factor perspective, non profitable and highly shorted names rallied the most while TMT mo was flat.

Let’s get straight to the good stuff…

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INTERNET

• AMZN +1.7% as they rolled out 1-hour and 3-hour delivery for 90,000+ items across hundreds of U.S. cities, with 3-hour service now in 2,000+ cities, reinforcing its push to improve delivery speed and retail efficiency. Separately, OpenAI is reportedly using AWS to serve U.S. government customers, especially for regulated and national security workloads where AWS already has deep compliance relationships. Theinformation said that OAI will share gov’t revs with AWS, through incremental revs likely limited near-term given DoD’s contract with OAI expected to just generate millions of dollars of revs over the next 15 months. Lastly, Reuters reported that Jassey said he sees AI doubling prior AWS sales projections to $600B by 2036 (roughly where street is already). That’s about a 14% CAGR from ‘26 -36, which is a massive decel from 30% growth rate in ‘26. Not good at all. Just kidding. Good, big numbers, but not sure anyone cares rt now as hypers are still somewhat in capex/roi purgatory (GOOGL > AMZN > META in this regard narrative wise at the moment)

  Jassy:

“I’ve been thinking ​for the last number of years that ⁠AWS, call it 10 years from now, ​could be about a $300 billion annual revenue, ​run rate business,” Jassy said, according to a review of his comments by Reuters. “I think what’s happening in AI ​that AWS has a chance to be ​at least double that.”

• UBER +4.6% on joint announcement with NVDA they pan to launch L4 autonomous vehicles in 28 cities by 2028 (starting in LA/SF in 1H27). Street was generally out positive, saying it improves Uber’s medium-term AV supply outlook and NVDA’s expanding OEM adoption….

• Other travel names strong with EXPE +4% / BKNG +3.5% / ABNB +3% as airlines DAL UAL and AAL raised Q1 outlooks. Delta (DAL) signaled continued strength in both leisure and corporate bookings and reaffirmed that pricing remains firm enough to offset higher fuel, while American (AAL) raised its revenue outlook, citing stronger-than-expected unit revenue and resilient domestic demand. United (UAL) pointed to record booking trends and broad-based strength across geographies, reinforcing that demand has not softened despite macro noise.

• META -75bps continues to be zipped lips about 20% RIF. Lots of talk of low company morale at the moment…GOOGL +2% continues to hold the $300 line well (20x CY 27 EPS of $15)

• TTD -7% as AdAge reported Publicis no longer recommending TTD to clients following audit: The holding company is telling clients that the audit it commissioned revealed multiple violations of the master service agreement it has in place with The Trade Desk. DigiDay also out with a negative article saying advertisers are staring to shop around:

Agencies cited growing momentum from Amazon DSP, retail media, direct buys and rival platforms with cleaner measurement and easier client justification. The piece also says some partners have grown frustrated by account-team turnover, tougher negotiations and signs that previously gated features are being unlocked more freely. Still, Digiday notes the core debate is whether this reflects healthy maturation or a moat that is starting to narrow.