TMTB EOD Wrap

Good afternoon. QQQs +45bps as the dizzying and accelerating pace of AI innovation continues. In the ACCel era, the feedback loop has accelerated wit horizontal apps like Claude Cowork and Claude excel and now Clawdbot. Improved models are capable of now writing complex integration code required to deploy themselves into produts, which means better model intelligence now instantly manifests itself as polished usable features. The AI velocity of “moments” is only going to increase in a self-improving feedback loop. Early AGI.

Akramsrazor had a good note on Clawdbot worth reading. Some snippets:

Clawdbot takes llm's and marries them to chat rails and personalization to complete the dream Siri was supposed to be. Yea, sure its comes with all kinds of security concerns, but for a brief moment we can all dream about what open source and unlimited compute can do for us as humans.The Opensource community is adding skills for Clawdbot faster then any company will ever be capable of doing because, well, customization with intelligence is essentially limitless.

Clawdbot release carries with it varying 1st and 2nd order effects. With everyone rushing out to buy Mac Minis, investors rushed to buy AAPL +3% today. Not because Mac Minis were going to drive a huge revenue beat but because of the implications of it means for a world where more computing is done at the edge:

Then there’s implications for META +2%, who owns the rails. Akrams again puts it better than we could have:

Clawdbot potentially flips the Meta strategy script going forward. If Chat is the best UI interface for humans, then WhatsApp/Instagram can be the default rails. All you need is for Meta to embrace third-party assistants, and it can subsidize the compute cost of the experience w its core (ads, engagement, commerce) and capture the identity graph and data exhaust. So, far they don’t appear to be going this way, at least at the entp level w whatsapp for biz they are closely guarding the rails. But if they were to do that here, they would just make another chat platform the default ux.

Apple for sure is going to try and do the same likely with google in tow, but Meta has a huge advantage here with Whatsapp. And from a stock perspective the narrative pivoting in that direction looks great at that valuation as victory would probably 3x the company value, so there is a lot of room for discounting.

Clawdbot’s security/governance issues — along with JPM’s enterprise IT call on Friday evening — had investors bidding up certain software names levered to managing agents: Dev tools, autho, security, hosting, CDNs, CI/CDs, observability. DDOG +5%; GTLB +5%; TEAM +5%. Cyber sw caught a bid: CRWD +3.5%; ZS/PANW +2-3%

Names related to CDN also ramped today with AKAM +4%, FSLY +5% and NET +9% the big winner as this was a big moment for edge computing. NET the big winner here in our opinion.