TMTB EOD Wrap

Good afternoon. QQQs -30bps as stocks continue to remain choppy but winners keep winning in AI semis despite MU selling off on a better print. Short on time today so we’ll skip the war stuff and get straight to the good stuff…

---

INTERNET

• SPOT -6%: TMTB reader ChemCho describes why: TME made some comments yesterday about SodaMusic / AI increasing competitive intensity in China + potentially putting pressure on sub growth and maybe pricing on low end. Seems more China centric (different copyright laws and distribution rights in US/Europe) but SPOT also getting hit. A bit weird as the TME stuff was out more than 24 hours ago yesterday. More details in TMTB Chat here.

• AMZN -50bps despite Cleveland saying sales and advertising tracking above street while AWS accelerated. Digitimes had an article suggesting AMZN’s Trainium 3 chip may underperform on cost-per-token, potentially leading to trimmed shipments and an accelerated Trainium 4 timeline. However, supply chain partners say they've received no cut notices and are ramping production for a strong 2H26 rollout. Jassy publicly backed Trainium 3 at ~40% better price-performance than Trainium 2, with nearly all supply expected reserved by mid-2026. Mahaney at ISI after the close going to 27% and 31% (range 30-35%) growth for AWS.