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TMT Breakout
Feb 11, 2025
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QQQs -22bps mainly held up by AAPL +2% as they announced plans with BABA +1.3% to develop AI for iPhones in China. Price action continues to be constructive post-earnings — not only from consumer facing companies but also from SMID Software. Today, it was SHOP +3% rallying from down 7% at one point shaking off a weaker Q1 FCF/GMV guide with a strong Q4 across the board. DASH and CFLT a couple of other ones this afternoon up on non-blow out prints (UPST +25% on a blow out). Regardless, lots of red on my screen today as ivnestors de-grossed ahead of the all important CPI print tomorrow morning (not META though - up 17 straight days!)

On the macro front, treasuries saw some selling pressure, w yields rising 1-4 bps across the curve as fed expects held steady pricing in ~36bps worth of cuts for the year.

Let’s get straight to it…


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  • SHOP +3% on a very good Q4 with GMV +26%, revs +31% and FCF margin 22% although some nitpicked around Q1 GMV guide in mid 20s and FCF margin guide in mid teens vs street at ~18%.

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